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RIP, Dr. Daniel Kahneman, the psychologist who turned the investing world on its head. Here are some excerpts from Zweig's blog.

Kahneman and Tversky showed the “rational man” assumption in economics is nonsense.

Investors who take Kahneman and Tversky’s lessons to heart can minimize fees, loses and regrets.

For years, as an investing journalist, I had wondered: why are smart people so stupid about money? About 5 minutes into Danny’s presentation, I realized he had the answers- not only to that question, but to nearly every mystery of financial behavior.

No, Danny said, money lost isn’t the same as money gained. Losses feel at least twice as painful as gains feel pleasant.

No, people don’t incorporate all available information.

Ask people if they want to take a risk with an 80% chance of success, and most say yes. Ask instead if they’d incur the same risk with a 20% chance of failure, and many say no.

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LoveKonan
04-03 20:36

Noting that the stocks people sell beat the ones they buy, Kahneman joked that “the cost of having an idea is 4%.”
The most important question to ask before making a decision is “what is the base rate?”
Danny who was studying visual perception. He already believed that just as optical illusions fool the eye, cognitive illusions fool the mind.
Three qualities of Danny.
1. Danny saw everything through a child’s eyes or, as some people call it, “beginner’s mind.” No one else I’ve ever known has so often asked: why?
2. He was also relentlessly self critical.
3. Danny could rework what we had already done as if it had never existed. Most people hate changing their mind; he liked nothing better, when the evidence justified it. “I have no sunk costs,” he would say.
Instead, he credited his success to hard work - but even more to luck, especially meeting Tversky.
“I don’t try to be clever at all.” Most of his money was in index funds. “The idea that I could see what no one else can is an illusion.”
“All of us would be better investors,” he often said, “if we just made few decisions.”