22. (eBay和亚马逊）淘宝模式
22. (eBay and Amazon) Taobao Model
01. 网友：阿段有没有研究过AMZN（亚马逊）？对即将在美国上市的京东怎么看？
01. Netizen: Duan, have you studied AMZN (Amazon)? What do you think of JD (Jingdong) that will soon be listed in the United States?
段永平：AMZN不错。京东知道一点点，没什么感觉。（2010－09－16）
Duan Yongping: AMZN is good. I know a little bit about JD, but I don't have much feeling towards it. (2010-09-16)
02. 网友：我认为京东也很牛，不知道大道用不用京东。京东的理念与亚马逊一致，个人觉得比较靠谱，会是阿里的强劲对手。
02. Netizen: I think JD is also great. I wonder if Dadao uses JD. JD's concept is consistent with Amazon, and I personally think it is more reliable. It could be Ali's strong opponent.
段永平：亚马逊是不错，但美国物流环境好。京东需要建自己的物流，我有点不太懂。目前京东这个规模依然亏钱，感觉商业模式不是太理想，但没太认真研究过。（2012－02－29）
Duan Yongping: Amazon is good, but the logistics environment in the United States is better. JD needs to build its own logistics, which I don't really understand. Currently, JD is still losing money at this scale, and I feel that the business model is not too ideal, but I haven't studied it seriously. (2012-02-29)
Netizen: Could you talk about the differences between JD and Amazon?
段永平：两家公司我都不太了解。似乎两家公司都是物流公司而且都不太容易赚钱，但Amazon似乎在未来要厉害很多。另外，贝索斯几乎每天回家吃饭洗碗。（2018－09－26）
Duan Yongping: I don't really know both companies. It seems that both companies are logistics companies and both are not easy to make money, but Amazon seems to be much stronger in the future. In addition, Bezos almost eats and washes dishes at home every day. (2018-09-26)
03. 网友：能说说eBay犯了哪些奇怪的错误而被亚马逊抢了生意吗？
03. Netizen: Can you talk about the strange mistakes that eBay made and lost business to Amazon?
段永平：eBay是先收费后卖（卖了还要收），AMZN是卖了才收费。（2010－10－29）
Duan Yongping: eBay charged before selling (also charged after selling), while AMZN charged after selling. (2010-10-29)
04. 网友：虽然eBay自身增长乏力，被Amazon赶超，但Paypal的发展势头依然很猛啊，而且已经占到eBay利润的很大一部分，您怎么看这个问题？另外我觉得，对阿里巴巴也是一样的，支付宝的价值大于淘宝等平台的价值。
04. Netizen: Although eBay itself has sluggish growth and has been surpassed by Amazon, Paypal's development momentum is still very strong. Moreover, it has already accounted for a large part of eBay's profits. What do you think of this issue? Also, I think it's the same for Alibaba. The value of Alipay is greater than that of platforms such as Taobao.
段永平：在国内淘宝约等于eBay+Amazon。（2010－07－07）
Duan Yongping: In China, Taobao is equivalent to eBay+Amazon. (2010-07-07)
网友：我也很看好淘宝，但是觉得你说的淘宝约等于eBay+Amazon过于乐观，就我个人购物体验来讲，对于比较大件的商品无法接受小卖家，哪怕便宜一点。我在淘宝买大件的经验告诉我，尽管有很强的信誉评分约束机制，体验还是不够理想。
Netizen: I also have high hopes for Taobao, but I think you are too optimistic about Taobao being equivalent to eBay+Amazon. Speaking from my personal shopping experience, I cannot accept small sellers for larger items, even if they are cheaper. My experience of buying large items on Taobao tells me that even though there is a strong credit rating constraint mechanism, the experience is still not ideal.
段永平：我讲的是生意模式。（2010－07－14）
Duan Yongping: I was talking about the business model. (2010-07-14)
23. 高负债商业模式
23. High-leverage business model
01. 网友：看了一下茅台和万科的年报，两家公司的盈利居然相差无几，而市值几乎相差一半，如果有钱买下整家公司的话，你会选择谁呢？
01. Netizen: After looking at the annual reports of Maotai and Vanke, I found that the two companies' profits are almost the same, but their market values are nearly halved. If you had the money to buy either company, which one would you choose?
段永平：你借过钱不？
Duan Yongping: Have you ever borrowed money?
网友：段大哥别笑话我，没有看懂“你借过钱不”是想说明什么？
Netizen: Mr. Duan, please don't make fun of me. I didn't understand what you meant by "Have you ever borrowed money?"
段永平：慢慢看就懂了。（2014－03－23）
Duan Yongping: You'll get it solwly. (2014-03-23)
网友补充1：（茅台先收钱再发货，万科需要大量屯地，需要先向银行贷款，其中风险和生意模式，段大哥一句“你借过钱不”一针见血啊。）
Netizen's addition 1: (Maotai collects payment before delivery, while Vanke needs a large amount of land hoarding and has to borrow from banks first. In terms of risk and business model, Mr. Duan's "Have you ever borrowed money" hits the nail on the head.)
网友补充2：大家可以想想借钱的好处和坏处：好处是如果一帆风顺的话会发展得快点；坏处1：增加运营成本，容易去赚不该赚的钱；2：经常在10年、8年中会有经济危机或者企业本身的经营困难，从而出现债权人要把钱收回去，资金周转出现问题；貌似相当比例死掉的企业都是倒在这两点上。
Netizen's addition 2: Everyone can think about the advantages and disadvantages of borrowing money: The advantage is that if everything goes smoothly, the development will be faster; Disadvantages: 1. Increase in operating costs, easy to make money that shouldn't be made; 2. There are often economic crises or operational difficulties for companies within 10 or 8 years, leading to creditors demanding repayment and problems with fund turnover. It seems that a considerable proportion of failed companies fall into these two categories.
【引用】巴菲特31年股东信精华（2012－02－17）
[Quote] Essence of Buffett's 31 Years of Shareholder Letters (2012-02-17)
任何一家公司的获利能力取决于（1）资产报酬率（2）负债的成本（3）财务杠杆的运用（也就是其运用负债而非股东权益来支应资产取得的程度）。（1995）
The profitability of any company depends on (1) return on assets, (2) cost of debt, and (3) the use of financial leverage (i.e., the degree to which it uses debt rather than equity to finance assets). (1995)
段永平：我一个人一般对有负债的公司不太愿意重仓，另外就是无论多有把握也绝对不要用Margin。（2013－02－19）
Duan Yongping: Personally, I generally don't like to heavily invest in companies with debt, and no matter how confident I am, I absolutely do not use margin. (2013-02-19)
02. 网友：当然还要看看段老师提到的负债率，我个人偏爱低负债、零负债的公司，还要看看资本开支，有不少公司是资本黑洞，利润只是纸上富贵。有些公司多年以来全部利润再投入都不够，还要增发或举债，我会避开此类公司，哪怕利润表很漂亮。
02. Netizen: Of course, we also need to consider the debt ratio mentioned by Mr. Duan. Personally, I prefer companies with low or zero debt, and I also look at capital expenditure. There are many companies that are black holes for capital, with profits just being paper wealth. For many years, some companies' entire profits are still insufficient for reinvestment, requiring additional issuance or borrowing. I would avoid such companies, even if the profit statement looks good.
段永平：我也尽量避开。GE对我来讲是个例外，但GE的负债有点像银行的负债。（2010－04－02）
Duan Yongping: I also try to avoid them. For me, GE is an exception, but GE's debt is a bit like bank debt. (2010-04-02)
03. 网友：想到一个问题：如果投了一个负债率很高的企业，对于投资者而言，这属于使用Margin吗？
03. Netizen: I thought of a question: If you invest in a company with a very high debt ratio, does that count as using margin for investors?
段永平：似乎不属于直接用Margin，不会导致你需要富两次。但是，我是不太喜欢买负债率高的企业的，除非我特别能懂。（2016－11－12）
Duan Yongping: It doesn't seem to directly involve using margin, which won't require you to be rich twice. But, I don't really like to buy companies with high debt ratios, unless I understand them particularly well. (2016-11-12)
段永平：没统计过。反正一般负债多的公司我也不买，GE例外了一次，准备差不多换一部分到YAHOO。要看谁长得快了。（2010－04－23）
Duan Yongping: I haven't kept track. Anyway, I generally don't buy companies with a lot of debt. GE was an exception once, and I'm planning to shift a portion to YAHOO. It will depends on who grows faster. (2010-04-23)
04. 引用：巴菲特1990年给伯克希尔•哈撒韦股东的信：
04. Quoting: Warren Buffett's letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders in 1990:
“我们被告知，大量的债务会让经营管理者比以往更加努力专注，就像在汽车的方向盘上装上一把匕首会让驾驶员异常小心的驾驶。我们承认，这种让人集中注意力的方式会早就一个非常警惕的驾驶员。但另外一个肯定的后果则是，一旦汽车碰上即使是最小的小坑或者一点冰，将导致一场致命而且不必要的事故。”（2012－01－12）
"We are told that a large amount of debt will cause managers to work harder and focus more, just as putting a dagger on the steering wheel of a car would make the driver exceptionally careful. We recognize that this is a way to concentrate attention early on a very alert driver. But the other certain consequence is that once the car encounters even the smallest pothole or a bit of ice, it will cause a deadly and unnecessary accident." (2012-01-12)
05. 网友：最近很困惑，经营的生意欠账太多，并且随着时间推移越来越深陷。在“做对的事来看，失去现金流的控制明显不是对的事”，也不利于发展。我打算要么改变模式，要么退出行业。您认为呢？我这属于家具建材行业。
05. Netizen: Recently, I've been very confused. The business I'm managing has a lot of debt, and it's getting deeper over time. From the perspective of doing the right thing, losing control of cash flow is clearly not the right thing and also not conducive to development. I plan to either change the business model or exit the industry. What do you think? I'm in the furniture and building materials industry.
段永平：不了解你的行业，感觉是难以差异化和难以规模化的行业，应该蛮辛苦的。不管什么生意，欠债多总是不舒服的，而且很可能早晚会出问题。（2019－04－28）
Duan Yongping: I don't understand your industry, but it seems like a challenging industry to differentiate and scale. It must be quite difficult. No matter what business it is, having a lot of debt is always uncomfortable, and it's likely to cause problems sooner or later. (2019-04-28)
06. 网友：我有个一直困扰我很久的问题想请教您：“绿城中国”目前市值110亿，2018年财报显示现今及等价物490亿，流动资产2800亿，总负债2500亿，即使现在清算也有300亿的价值，收入每年提高，缺点是年利润11亿有下滑（2017年26亿利润），另外绿城品质和口碑一直不错，为什么股价一直很低，我清楚这个标的肯定长期不如贵州茅台和中国平安，但就是不明白什么原因导致价格持续走低，请赐教。
06. Netizen: I have a question that has been bothering me for a long time and I would like to ask you: "Greentown China" currently has a market value of 11 billion, the 2018 financial report shows current and equivalent assets of 49 billion, liquid assets of 280 billion, total liabilities of 250 billion. Even if it is liquidated now, it still has a value of 30 billion. The income increases every year, but the downside is that the annual profit has declined from 1.1 billion in 2017 to 260 million. In addition, Greentown has always had good quality and reputation. Why has the stock price been consistently low? I understand that this target is definitely not as good as Guizhou Moutai and Ping An Insurance in the long run, but I just don't understand the reasons that have caused the price to continue to decline. Please enlighten me.
段永平：我也不明白，但我也不会买这种高负债的公司。（2019－05－20）
Duan Yongping: I also don't understand, but I also wouldn't buy a company with such high debt. (2019-05-20)
24. 重资产行业
24. Heavy-asset industry
01. 网友：大道，我从2014年看你的网易博客，一路跟你到雪球，收获很多。买股票就是买企业，我懂。但怎么辨别好企业似懂非懂，巴菲特说过，喜诗是好生意，飞行安全公司是一般生意，航空公司是糟糕的生意。我理解的是资本支出大的行业不容易出现好企业。不知道对不对，请大道指点一下。
01. Netizen: DaDao, I have been following your Netease blog since 2014, all the way to Snowball, and have gained a lot. Buying stocks means buying companies, I understand that. But how to distinguish a good company from an average one? Buffett said tha See's is good businesses, flight safety companies are average businesses, and airlines are bad businesses. My understanding is that industries with high capital expenditures are not likely to have good companies. I would like to know if this is correct, please enlighten me.
段永平：“资本支出大的行业不容易出现好企业”，我同意这个观点。（2019－03－16）
Duan Yongping: "Industries with high capital expenditures are not likely to have good companies." I agree with this view. (2019-03-16)
02. 网友：我想问一下关于好的商业模式。如果有一个公司，其行业特点决定了其项目投资比较大，如化工类，由于公司管理好，净资产收益率也比较高（大概能达到30%左右）。公司企业文化比较好，很注重在研发方面的投入。技术力量雄厚，管理也很好。其主打产品可以做到把成本控制在全行业最低，在包括国际大公司在内全行业亏损的情况下他们还可以有微利。公司号称别人亏本我们微利，别人微利我们赚大钱。由于技术和管理水平比较高，投资同样一个项目可以比别的公司少花很多钱。由于其投资的项目都是资金大技术要求高，导致一般的企业难以进入，可以认为这是企业的护城河。公司每上一个新项目投资都会比较大，新项目的投资主要是公司利润和银行贷款。我记得你说过不喜欢有负债的公司，那么这样的总资产类公司，你认为是不是好的生意模式呢？你会考虑投资这样的公司吗？
02. Netizen: I would like to ask about a good business model. If there is a company whose industry characteristics determine that its project investments are relatively large, such as the chemical industry, and due to good management, the return on net assets is also relatively high (around 30%). The company has a good corporate culture and pays great attention to research and development. It has strong technical capabilities and good management. Its main product can achieve the lowest cost in the industry, they can make small benefits even under the circumstances that the international large companies are operating at a loss. The company claims that while others are losing money, they make small profits, and while others make small profits, they make big money. Due to their high technical and management capabilities, they can spend much less money on the same project compared to other companies. Since the projects they invest in require a large amount of funds and have high technical requirements, it makes it difficult for ordinary enterprises to enter, and this can be considered as the company's moat. The company invests heavily in each new project, mainly using company profits and bank loans. I remember you said you don't like companies with debt, so do you think this type of asset-heavy company is a good business model? Would you consider investing in such a company?
段永平：一般不会。（2019－05－31）
Duan Yongping: Generally, I wouldn't . (2019-05-31)
25. 对冲基金
25. Hedge funds
01. 艾美谷：【保尔森旗舰基金今年已亏损46%】对冲基金经理人保尔森今年面临创建基金公司以来最差业绩表现，据透露截止11月，保尔森旗下的旗舰基金已亏损了46%网页链接保尔森对冲基金总共管理着280亿美元资产，今年以来，因投资花旗，美国银行，嘉汉林业等股票损失惨重。
01. Amy Gu: [Paulson's flagship fund has lost 46% this year] Hedge fund manager Paulson is facing the worst performance since starting his fund company. It is reported that as of November, Paulson's flagship fund has lost 46%. Paulson Hedge Fund manages a total of $28 billion in assets. This year, he suffered heavy losses from investing in Citigroup, Bank of America, and Canfor stocks.
段永平：赌钱总是有输赢的。当然，如果拿别人的钱赌，赢了有提成，输了还有1－2%的年费，那更是个不错的生意模式哈。（2011－12－06）
Duan Yongping: Gambling always involves wins and losses. Of course, if you gamble with other people's money, and if you win, you get a share, and if you lose, you still receive 1-2% annual fees, then it's a pretty good business model. (2011-12-06)
ps: “不管什么生意，欠债多总是不舒服的，而且很可能早晚会出问题。”
“‘资本支出大的行业不容易出现好企业’，我同意这个观点。”