在网上看到这一段Terry Smith采访。总结来说，坏公司变好很难，本性难移
Given these restrictions, you are likely to discard a large part of the equity universe from the outset.
Indeed, the vast majority of companies are uninvestable to us.
As a consequence, there are many sectors that are not part of your portfolio, such as mining, oil and gas companies...
… utilities, transport, banking, insurance, real estate? Yes, we don’t own any of those things. None of them.
Because they don’t meet your requirements.
The Stern School of Business at New York University does a regular annual survey of thousands of companies and they look at the measure of return on capital employed minus the weighted average cost of capital. I’d say that’s the most important measure of corporate performance. But don’t take my word for it. That’s what Warren Buffett wrote in his 1979 annual letter. If you look at this data set and you look at the companies that are earning a very positive spread over their cost of capital, you’ll find that they’re in the following sectors: consumer staples, consumer discretionary, IT, medical services, IT services, business services and so on. They are earning more than their cost of capital – they are creating value. Then you look at the ones that consistently earn less than their cost of capital...
Which sectors are these?
Mining and minerals, oil and gas, banking, investment banking, brokerage, real estate, transport. They are a disaster. And look, there comes a time in every economic cycle when mining is doing pretty well, airlines are doing pretty well or banking is making a comeback, but it’s usually one or two years out of ten. Leopards don’t change spots, good companies don’t become bad and bad companies don’t become good. Except for very small sweet spots in a cycle where the big, bad companies have their day in the sun.