$中国船舶(SH600150)$ $中国重工(SH601989)$ $中船防务(SH600685)$
Market Updates: World Shipyard Monitor - April 2024 Issue
2024年第一季度，新造船订单持续增长，订单353艘，载重量2730万载重吨，总吨位1030万加总吨，与去年持平。1,934艘船舶，载重量117.3米，总吨位44.7米。受多个细分市场强劲市场和一些船东推行绿色车队更新计划的支持，新造船需求在许多行业都表现强劲。也就是说，船厂有限的泊位可用性和高昂的新造船价格继续抑制总订单量。 原油油轮订单特别稳定，第一季度订购了47艘1090万载重吨的油轮，已经是2023年合同运力的三分之二，这是由于VLCC订单强劲，第一季度的订单（24艘VLCC）比2022-23年的总和（21艘）还要多。成品油轮订单保持稳定，订购了49艘290万载重吨的油轮，尽管低于去年（1830万载重吨，自2007年以来最强的订单量）。液化石油气船承包仍在如火如荼地进行，到目前为止，在达到创纪录的容量后，2024年有37艘2.6Mcbm的船签约。去年有111艘7.7Mcbm的船。对LNG运输船的需求依然强劲（29艘5.0m cbm的LNG船），已经达到2023年订购能力的45%。与此同时，汽车运输船的合同仍在增加，1-24季度订购了14辆10万CEU，尽管已经从2022-23年的创纪录水平有所回落（2023年：85辆70万CEU）。近几个月来，集装箱船合同数量进一步下降（第一季度至第二十四季度：20万标准箱21艘，2023年：150万标准箱185艘），尽管绿色船队更新计划继续支持该领域的一些订单，今年迄今为止，82%的标准箱订单能够使用替代燃料。
航运业至关重要的“燃料转型”仍然是一个核心焦点（见分析），第一季度至第二十四季度47%的总吨订单（144艘880万总吨的船舶）和约50%的替代燃料订单。甲醇船的需求持续增长，1-24季度订购了25艘180万总吨的甲醇船，相当于替代燃料船订单的30%（不包括液化天然气船），尽管液化天然气仍然占最高份额的40%。与此同时，在Q1-24签订了四艘氨船的合同，使订单总数达到12艘1.0万吨。 新造船投资的总价值在新造船价格和“绿色”技术增加的支持下保持上升。在第一季度至第二十四季度，新建房屋的支出总额为304亿澳元，与2023年的1216亿澳元保持一致。 新造船价格持续上涨，并居高不下。截至3月底，我们的指导指数为183点，上升了11%与去年同期相比，名义价格仅比08年8月的峰值低4%，较高的远期覆盖（现在是3.5年），坚定的新造船需求和通胀压力（特别是劳动力成本）支持定价。
近几个月来，全球船舶订单（4633艘，2.806亿载重吨，1.274亿总吨）已趋于稳定，但各行业的趋势有所不同。油轮订单量同比增长了一倍，而LNG船和散货船订单量增长较为温和，集装箱船订单量下降了17%。 预计2024年船厂产量将显著回升至4060万CGT，同比增长15%，预计集装箱船和液化天然气船交付量将创纪录——1-24季度集装箱船交付量共计105艘，70万TEU，连续第四个季度创纪录。中国船厂预计在2024年交付1990万总吨（2023年：1800万总吨），其次是韩国船厂1140万总吨（2023年：920万总吨）。由于订单量减少，预计2025年全球交付量按CGT计算将略有下降，但仍将保持在3840万CGT的高位。
Q1 2024 saw a continued healthy flow of newbuild orders, with 353 ships of 27.3m dwt and 10.3m CGT ordered, similar to the run rate seen last year (1,934 ships of 117.3m dwt and 44.7m CGT). Newbuild appetite appears firm across many sectors, supported by strong markets in several segments and some owners pursuing green fleet renewal programmes. That said, constrained berth availability at yards and high newbuild prices continue to hold back total order volumes.
Crude tanker ordering has been especially firm, with 47 units of 10.9m dwt ordered in Q1-24, already two-thirds of the capacity contracted in 2023, driven by strong VLCC ordering, with more ordered in Q1-24 (24 VLCCs) than in 2022-23 combined (21 units). Product tanker ordering remains firm, with 49 units of 2.9m dwt ordered, though below the pace of contracting seen last year (18.3m dwt, the strongest ordering volumes since 2007). LPG carrier contracting remains in full swing, with 37 vessels of 2.6m cbm contracted in 2024 so far, after reaching a record (in capacity terms) 111 ships of 7.7m cbm last year. There remains firm demand for LNG carriers (29 units of 5.0m cbm), reaching 45% of the capacity ordered in 2023 already. Meanwhile, car carrier contracting remains elevated, with 14 units of 0.1m ceu ordered in Q1-24, though has eased back from the record levels seen over 2022-23 (2023: 85 units of 0.7m ceu). Containership contracting has stepped back further in recent months (Q1-24: 21 units of 0.2m TEU, 2023: 185 units of 1.5m TEU), though green fleet renewal programmes continue to support some ordering in the segment, with 82% of TEU ordered in the year to date alternative fuel capable.
Shipping's vital 'Fuelling Transition' remains a central focus (see Analysis), with 47% of GT ordered in Q1-24 (144 vessels of 8.8m GT) and ~50% of tonnage on order alternative fuel capable. There has been continued uptake of methanol capable vessels, with 25 such ships of 1.8m GT ordered in Q1-24, equivalent to 30% of alternative fuel capable GT ordered when excluding LNG carriers, though LNG still accounts for the highest share at 40%. Meanwhile, four ammonia capable vessels were contracted in Q1-24, bringing the total on order to 12 units of 1.0m GT.
The total value of newbuild investment remains elevated on the back of firm newbuild prices and increased uptake of 'green' technologies. Spending on newbuilds totalled $30.4bn in Q1-24, in line with the $121.6bn spent in 2023.
Newbuild prices have continued to rise and remain high. Our guideline index stood at 183 points as of end-Mar, up 11% y-o-y and just 4% below its peak in Aug-08 in nominal terms, with elevated forward cover (now 3.5 years), firm newbuild appetite and inflationary pressures (notably labour costs) supporting pricing.
The global orderbook (4,633 ships of 280.6m dwt and 127.4m CGT) has stabilised in recent months, though there are varying trends by sector. The tanker orderbook has doubled in capacity terms y-o-y, whilst the LNG carrier and bulker orderbooks have seen more modest growth and the boxship orderbook has declined 17%.
Shipyard output is projected to pick up markedly in 2024 to 40.6m CGT, up 15% y o y, amid expectations for record containership and LNG carrier deliveries - boxship deliveries totalled 105 units of 0.7m TEU in Q1-24, the fourth consecutive quarter of record deliveries in TEU terms. Chinese yards are forecast to deliver 19.9m CGT in 2024 (2023: 18.0m CGT), followed by Korean yards at 11.4m CGT, (2023: 9.2m CGT). Global deliveries are forecast to ease back slightly in CGT terms in 2025, due to a smaller orderbook schedule, but remain elevated at 38.4m CGT.